Mudavadi entry
spices Kenya's poll
Mudavadi entry spices Kenya's poll
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Updated 5 hrs 10 mins ago
Three things have happened around Deputy Prime Minister Musalia
Mudavadi over the last two months. He has walked out of Prime Minister Raila
Odinga’s shadow, a man he deputised in Cabinet and Orange Democratic Movement,
and he is now battling his way to State House.
Secondly, his name has featured as a possible ‘project’ of
President Kibaki’s State House, alongside that of Eldoret North MP William
Ruto. President Kibaki on Tuesday denounced the ‘project’ claim by Lugari MP
Cyrus Jirongo.
Thirdly, Mudavadi’s candidature has in one way or another,
affected the campaigns for State House by six other presidential contenders:
Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Justice
Minister Eugene Wamalwa, Raila, Ruto, and Jirongo.
Certainly, the image of Mudavadi either as a
moderate in the political arena, and for Uhuru and Ruto, a possible
‘compromise’ candidate to back should The Hague make it hard for them to run,
is different from the laid-back Musalia of the pre-May 2012 period who seemed
forever loyal and subservient to Raila.
Today, just about two months after he left the
Orange Democratic Movement, and having resigned as Local Government minister
while choosing to cling to DPM’s office, Mudavadi is not only being considered
a serious contender, but the other aspirants are grappling with the
consequences of his entry, amid claims he is a Kibaki ‘project’.
All major players in the race, including
President Kibaki whose succession is the bone of contention, are embroiled in
the controversy generated by Mudavadi’s entry into the race on a United
Democratic Forum (UDF) ticket. UDF has been a subject of speculation over
alleged connection to the incumbent holders of State power, with reports that
among its founders are operatives in President Kibaki’s State House.
On Tuesday, State House in an uncharacteristic
harsh rebuttal, told off Jirongo over allegations that the State had sponsored
some political parties and presidential aspirants as ‘projects’ to influence
the election of the fourth president.
The rebuttal, crafted in a language unusual for
State House, underlined the ripples Mudavadi’s ambition is causing. Long
considered a lightweight, Mudavadi’s candidature appears to affect other
presidential hopefuls: They either want to court him, crush, or use him.
Apart from Raila, whom all the others are keen
on stopping, the Sabatia MP could easily have won the distinction that he is
either to be wooed or stopped.
The departure of Mudavadi is a blow to the ODM
Party Leader’s campaign for president, particularly because Raila appeared to
hold the ground in Western.
The circumstances of Mudavadi’s acrimonious exit
from ODM –protesting at alleged schemes by Raila’s allies to deny him a fair
shot at party presidential nominations – do not help the PM’s cause either.
exited PM’s opponents
This is because it fits into the narrative that
the PM is intolerant to criticism, and does not brook competition. Rivals
have exploited this to portray the Langata MP as authoritarian. That Raila had
a soft spot for Mudavadi was evident in that he had named him DPM and deputy
party leader.
This infuriated Eldoret North MP, William Ruto,
who felt he deserved the posts on account of ODM’s overwhelming support in Rift
Valley. A second position of deputy party leader had to be created for Ruto to
mollify him, but he eventually denounced the party.
Raila’s falling out with his deputy excited the
Premier’s opponents, as it appeared to weaken ODM. Raila allies, however, argue
the exits gave the PM the opportunity to pick new blood to work with.
But celebrations appear to be short-lived
because Mudavadi’s presidential candidature now seems as much a problem to the
G7 Alliance leaders as he was to Raila.
Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa was the first to
show unease with the idea of Mudavadi orbiting towards the alliance he had joined.
Wamalwa was a sensation in Western, with his
declaration to run for high office until Mudavadi rained on his parade.
Association with other G7 leaders – Kalonzo, Uhuru, and Ruto – shored up Saboti
MP’s popularity.
So sensational was his march that Cabinet Minister
Soita Shitanda and Ikolomani MP Boni Khalwale wooed Wamalwa to New Ford- Kenya
after tussling with Trade Minister Moses Wetangula for Ford-Kenya’s leadership.
That Shitanda and Khalwale have since abandoned
Wamalwa for Mudavadi explains how the latter has upset the equation in Western.
Instructively, at the weekend Wamalwa joined
Jirongo, who has fought Mudavadi throughout his political life, for a joint
rally at which they attacked Mudavadi, and Ruto as “State House projects”.
Wamalwa mocked Mudavadi’s record of seniority
and experience, alleging it was tainted with the Goldenberg scandal. A day
later, Mudavadi said it was laughable that one would take himself as a serious
presidential aspirant yet he had been appointed minister “just the other day”.
While Wamalwa’s high profile role at the launch
of Uhuru’s The National Alliance, gave the impression he could be the deputy
PM’s running mate, Mudavadi’s march may yet spring up other surprises.
Wamalwa is now left alone in New Ford-Kenya
after all his allies left for Mudavadi’s UDF, and that has been a source of
discomfort for the Saboti MP. For Uhuru, facing prospects of a lengthy trial at
The Hague, it has been suggested that he is under pressure in central Kenya to
quit in favour of Mudavadi seen as the best bet to stop Raila from the top
seat.
Lately, the Uhuru camp has been forced to fight
off suggestions that he could opt to shelve his ambition to become Mudavadi’s
running mate.
Uhuru’s spokesman Munyori Buku has explained
Uhuru’s remark at the burial of the late Internal Security George Saitoti to
the effect he is ready to defer his ambition should not be misconstrued he
would give up his bid. Rather, Buku said, Uhuru meant he would back whoever won
after joint nominations.
Reconciliation deal
The perceived talks involving the two deputy
Prime Ministers has reportedly not gone down well with Ruto.
At one point Belgut MP Charles Keter responded,
“They, too, could negotiate with others,” when confronted with reports of deal
making between Uhuru and Mudavadi.
Speculation has it Mudavadi could have come
between Uhuru and Ruto, hence the unease with him. The persistent unconfirmed
reports of Ruto and Raila holding talks have only fueled the perception the
Eldoret North MP could be re-assessing his options, particularly now that the
PM’s so-called blue-eyed boy has left his kraal.
Ruto has, however, dismissed any talk of him
negotiating with Raila.
On the other hand, although Kalonzo had somewhat
distanced himself from the G7 Alliance after apparent cold relations developed
between him, and Uhuru and Ruto, Mudavadi’s entry poses competition in the
search for a compromise candidate, a slot he occupied in the secret alternative
plans for several parties.
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